Two trends in polling also point in this direction. One is that Hispanic voters don't seem hugely preoccupied with immigration. The Pew Research Center reports that many more focus on education, the economy and health than the one-third who say immigration is "extremely important" to them personally.
The other is that the president's job approval among Hispanics has been falling sharply. He got 71 percent of their votes in 2012, but fewer than half approve his performance today.
It's not hard to see why. The sluggish economy has hurt Hispanics more than most Americans. Obamacare and big government policies have not helped them as they apparently have hoped.
This suggests that non-passage of comprehensive legislation won't hurt Republicans as much as predicted. And inaction, always the easier legislative course, would prevent a debate in which the cries of angry opponents, gleefully highlighted in mainstream media, could antagonize Hispanic voters.
The emphasis at the end is mine. I'm one of those "soft on immigration" conservatives, and while I understand the enforcement-first argument, I literally hate the rhetoric that often accompanies it. I cringe when I hear Rush say "All these people are going to be Democrat voters!!" Well, they are if you write them off that way. Yes, the media is disgusting in the way they bait Hispanics, but we're supplying free chum. The least we can do is keep quiet while Obama is melting down with his own base.
If we're going to say anything it should be to point out—as Barone does—that Obama didn't care about immigration reform when Democrats had Congressional super-majorities at the beginning of his presidency. All Americans—including Hispanics—are paying now for his ridiculous economic policies that he crammed through then, and they're paying attention to recent history now as his reign continues to crumble and stumble toward a close.
I've never bought the "conventional wisdom" that Hispanics were pro-open (or at least easier) immigration, so much so that it is a defining issue to their politics.
ReplyDeleteThat probably comes from my long marriage to Mrs. Pik, who is 3rd+ generation US citizen of Mexican descent. Mrs. Pik grew up in the Rio Grande Valley, about 20 miles from the border. She certainly has an ethnic affinity with Mexican immigrants and a sympathy with those who work and contribute here, but that comes with several important qualifications.
One qualifying factor to that affinity is the significant cultural difference between AMDs and those who are from el otro lado (the other side). This difference is certainly noticeable by AMDs, and comes with its own prejudices and actual judgements (e.g. Mrs. Pik is saddened by what the massive immigration has done to her home region in So. Texas.) This cultural difference is even greater between AMDs and those from Central America.
Second, my guess is that most AMDs very much resent illegal immigrants who are coming here to scam welfare and other handouts. So many are very fierce about wanting to control the border to reduce this. Mrs. Pik is especially upset by the current flood of children to the border (and she smells a rat in that situation).
So it is far from a given that Hispanic US citizens, including (especially?) those of Mexican descent, necessarily favor open immigration or lax enforcement of current immigration laws. So why have previous polls come out the way that they have? I'm thinking that the vast deployment of welfare and government programs have created loyalty of many Hispanics, especially those in younger generations, to Democrats and those who promise more. Since those so-called leaders are seeking more power (i.e. more constituents), party and candidate loyalty connect the voters to the immigration issue more than the issue does itself.
So I agree with Barone's point. As other issues become more important so as to break the loyalty bond to the Dems, the weak agreement on immigration will also easily be broken.
BTW, cultural differences among the various ethnicities of "Hispanic" are significant. Polls that brings in eastern Puerto Ricans and others who are solid Dems do not reflect what many AMDs in Texas think.
Again, this is just one Anglo's view based on over-extrapolation from a small sample size. But it would be good if someone in the biz would dig more into the specifics of the "Hispanic" vote. Of course, with the Repub establishment wanting to find an easy excuse to pander, there is little incentive for such deeper analysis on their part.
FYI, I coined the term "AMD" for the previous comment as shorthand for "American of Mexican descent".
DeleteMy own impression is that many Hispanic families in the Southwest which may typically be of mixed citizenship could care less about ideology or politics but care very deeply about la Familia, leaving them not so much interested in the former as strongly not interested in any change which might threaten the stable status quo of the latter.
DeleteYeah, I can see that dynamic could be in play also; it's not one we have.
DeleteOne thing I'd add, is that local politics is a BIG deal among Hispanics in far south Texas. I've seen local political rallies (city council in relative small towns) that double as social events. Along with that high level of interest, there is a strong sense of political loyalty in that community.
Of course, there is a dark side sometimes.
And don't get me started on voter fraud down there. Mexicans are known to be recruited to come across to vote in local elections, at least in the near border towns. Good thing we have voter ID now.