Michael Medved on Distorting Huckabee's Victory
This is from Medved's latest Townhall.com commentary.
Predictably enough, most media commentators have totally misinterpreted the nature of Mike Huckabee's big win in the Iowa GOP caucuses. Conventional wisdom says that he swept to victory based on overwhelming support from Evangelicals, but conventional wisdom is flat-out wrong.
According to the exit polls used by major news networks, a majority of voters who described themselves as "evangelical" or "born again" Christians actually voted against Huckabee--with 54 percent splitting their support among Romney, McCain, Thompson and Ron Paul. Yes, Huckabee's 46 percent of Evangelicals was a strong showing, but it was directly comparable to his 40 percent of women, or 40 percent of all voters under the age of 30, or 41 percent of those earning less than $30,000 a year. His powerful appeal to females, the young and the poor make him a different kind of Republican, who connects with voting blocs the GOP needs to win back. He's hardly the one-dimensional religious candidate that we see in the media caricature.
I think this is important to note this because the media has been so focused on the religious aspect of the Republican candidates, and I don't think it's because these chatterboxes are genuinely interested in distinctions in Christology and moral theology. Instead I would suggest that it's all to make the Republican's look like panderers to the scary Christians in the guts of this country which they like to caricature as mouth-breathing bumpkin brigades. Huckabee is routinely described as a former Baptist minister, but he was in government for 12 years, longer than he was in church ministry! Contrast this with Edwards, a 1-term Senator who is never referred to as a "Former Ambulance Chaser". Mitt Romney is referred to as a Mormon constantly and does anyone care if he doesn't knock on your door during dinner? Meanwhile we're still dying to find out the exact denomination of Rev. Jesse Jackson and Rev. Al Sharpton.
While it's a mistake to say that all Evangelicals are supporting Huckabee, it's also true that Evangelicals make up a HUGE proportion of his base of support. Among non-Evangelicals Huckabee received, I believe, 13 percent of the vote. This is not insubstantial (or is it unsubstantial?), but it does show that he is relying a great deal on Evangelicals for support.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good point, Paul Z -- also the demographic in Iowa would be helpful to get a picture of who supported him. I mean, how many folks out there identify as Evangelicals? My guess is a lot.
ReplyDeletemean, how many folks out there identify as Evangelicals? My guess is a lot.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure about the state as a whole, but about 60% of last week's GOP caucus-goers were Evangelical. This article sums up the numbers pretty well.
All in all, about 60% of Huckabee's votes came from Evangelicals.
OK, so he got an average amount. I think Medved's point still stands. The press is saying "Well, to bad for Huck -- not as many evangelicals in NH", etc.
ReplyDeleteIt would not surprise me if Huckabee made a stronger showing in N.H. than the polls are predicting. Like in the 20% range. It would not surprise if Paul did either. It would not surprise me if McCain lost. I don't see what is so appealing about McCain.
ReplyDeleteone more thing. I like Obama. I would consider breaking bread with him. The other dems I wouldn't talk to them if I ran into them at the Mall. I'd just keep walking.
ReplyDeleteFor some reason, Obama does not have the same effect on me. He's an enemy that I can respect. I perceive a kernel of goodness there. Like he can been turned to the light if you can find the right combination of examples to prove to him that being a commie isn't cool.
It wouldn't surprise me if he switched to our side at some point. There is a nobility about him. Once all the trash comes out it will probably diminish a bit, but for right now I really like him.